结构转变与我国经济周期的微波化

通过构建制造业和服务业的三要素投入生产函数，从产业本身波动性的差异揭示结构转变与我国经济周期波动稳定化形成之间的内在联系。计量结果表明１９７８－２０１０年不但我国制造业的总产出ＴＦＰ的波动性要大于服务业，而且增加值ＴＦＰ的波动性要远远大于服务业，即使总产出的ＴＦＰ相同，制造业的增加值ＴＦＰ的波动要比服务业的大７１％。因而从制造业向服务业的结构转变是我国经济周期稳定化趋势形成的一个重要原因。因此，要实现未来我国经济长期平稳的发展，应该积极促进产业结构的调整和升级，加快第三产业的发展。

Structural Transition and Narrowing-fluctuation of Chinese Business Cycle

By building three elements’ input production function of manufacturing and service industry,the paper reveals the internal linkage between structural transition and stabilization of business cycle fluctuation in China.The econometric results indicate that not only TFP of our domestic manufacturing industry’s gross output but TFP of added-value fluctuate more than that of service industry.Even though the two industries have the same TFP of gross output,TFP of manufacturing industry’s added value fluctuates more than that of service industry by 71%.Thus,structural transition from manufacturing industry to service industry contributes mainly to stabilization of Chinese business cycle.Consequently,we should promote industrial adjustment and upgrading,speed up development of the tertiary industry for long-term,stable Chinese economic development.