多维认知偏差投资风险能量密度模型探究

金融全球化下,金融活动的参与主体逐步多样化,投资者的认知偏差加剧了证券投资活动中风险度量的难度。现有的金融证券投资的理论研究与实践应用基本都是围绕着如何处理风险与收益的关系而展开的。但是,传统的理论方法与标准的金融风险度量方法在一定程度上忽略了人的心理认知行为等因素的影响,使得对现有的风险度量工具和方法的借鉴与应用增加了投资者额外的决策风险。鉴于此,本文引入心理行为因素的时间变量,在理论研究与投资者认知行为研究的基础上,借助物理学中能量密度相关理论与思想方法构建多认知偏差的时间风险度量模型,度量金融投资活动中基于多种偏差的投资组合风险,克服了传统风险度量方法在完全理性人条件下主要依赖于历史数据推导的缺陷,从而使得证券组合的风险度量更接近于实际的证券投资组合状况。最后文章根据模型分析提出相关政策建议。

Energy Density Flow Model Research of the Investment Risk based on Multidimensional Cognitive Bias

Under financial globalization, the main participation of the financial activities are increasingly diversification, cognitive bias of investors exacerbated the difficulty of the risk measurement of securities investment. Existing financial portfolio investment theory and practical application almost all revolved around how to deal with the relationship between risk and return. However, the theory and methods of traditional and risk measurement methods of standards financial to some extent neglected the impact of psychological cognitive behavior, and makes the drawing and the application of the existing risk measurement tools and methods to add the investors additional the decision-making risk. So, in this paper, introduced the time variable of psychological and behavioral factors, basis on the theoretical and investors of cognitive behavior study, and with energy density of physics to build the risk of cognitive bias time measurement model, and measure portfolio risk based on a wide range of bias in the financial investment activities, and overcome the traditional methods risk measurement defects that people mainly rely on historical data derived under the conditions of a fully rational, and make the portfolio risk measure close to the actual situation of the securities portfolio. Finally, the paper based on model analysis to make related policy recommendations.