中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素

中国南北方地区发展不平衡问题凸显,人口南北空间分异现象引起了广泛关注。文章以1982—2020年5期人口普查数据为基础,采用泰尔指数、地理探测器等方法,探究中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内"南密北疏"的人口分布格局基本稳定,南方地区一直保持着人口规模和密度优势。(2)研究区人口分布的总体差异不断拉大,南北方地区内部差异的贡献占主导地位,其中南方地区内部差异比北方地区小,但上升幅度较大。(3)研究区人口具有向南迁移扩散的趋势,且人口密度变化的区域差异持续扩大,少部分区域人口快速增长,人口密度优势显著。(4)人口空间分异是自然环境和经济社会因素共同作用的结果,经济发展水平、创新能力和吸纳就业能力等是人口密度变化的主要因素,其中创新能力的影响作用不断增强。

Spatial Differentiation Pattern of the Population and Its Influencing Factors in the Southeastern Half of HU Huanyong Line

The problem of unbalanced development has become increasingly prominent in the northern and southern regions, and the phenomenon of the North-South spatial differentiation of China’s population has aroused widespread concern. Based on the population census data from 1982 to 2020,this paper explores the spatial differentiation pattern of the population and its influencing factors in the southeastern half of HU Huanyong Line by the means of Theil index and geographical detector. The results show that: (1) It presents stable population distribution pattern which is denser in the south than in the north in the southeastern half of HU Huanyong Line,and it still maintains the advantages of population size and density in the southern region from 1982 to 2020. (2) The overall difference of population distribution continues to widen in the study area, which is dominated by the intra-regional differences between the northern region and the southern region in the southeastern half of HU Huanyong Line. Among them,the internal disparity in the southern region is smaller than that in the northern region,but the increase range is greater. (3) The migration direction of population shifts to the south in the study area,and the regional differences of population density change continue to expand. A few regions present the characteristic of rapid population growth with the significant advantage of population density. (4) The spatial differentiation of population is the result of the combined effect of natural environment, economic and social factors.Economic and social factors, such as the economic development level, innovation ability and employment opportunities,are the main factors of population density change, among which the innovation ability is playing a greater role in the population density.