武汉城市圈科技金融效率时空特征与趋同演化分析

重视创新风险引发的投资损失,是提高科技金融服务质量的关键。武汉城市圈作为中部崛起战略高地以及首个科技金融改革创新试验区,在科技强区建设、金融体系升级、高技术产业发展已取得显著成效。结合Undesirable-SBM模型、标准差椭圆和空间马尔可夫链,对武汉城市圈9座城市2010—2019年面板数据进行实证研究,剖析武汉城市圈科技金融效率空间格局、时空演变及趋同演化。结果表明:(1)研究期内,考虑非期望产出的科技金融效率均低于未考虑非期望产出,表明忽略创新风险会高估科技金融效率水平;(2)武汉城市圈科技金融效率均以武汉城市为重心且未发生迁移,城市科技金融效率"西北—东南"分布格局较为稳定,标准差椭圆范围逐渐扩张;(3)城市科技金融效率偏向上转移,演变路径受原有状态影响较大,且较难实现跨越式升迁;(4)考虑空间滞后项的空间马尔可夫链结果显示,邻域类型对城市科技金融效率状态转移影响显著,空间分布上具有较强的近邻效应,即转移方向与邻近城市类型基本保持一致,呈现"高高趋同,低低趋同,高拉动低,低抑制高"的空间演化特征。

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Convergent Evolution Analysis of Sci-Tech Finance Efficiency in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

To pay attention to the investment loss caused by innovation risk is the key to improve the service quality of sci-tech finance. As a strategic highland for the rise of central China and the first sci-tech financial reform and innovation experimental area,Wuhan urban agglomeration has made remarkable achievements in the construction of sci-tech-strong area, the upgrading of financial system and the development of high-tech industries. Combining with the Undesirable SBM model, the standard deviation ellipse and the spatial Markov chain, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern, spatiotemporal evolution and convergence evolution of sci-tech and financial efficiency in Wuhan urban agglomeration in 2010-2009 through empirical study on the panel data of 9 cities. The results show that: (1) During the research period, the efficiency of sci-tech finance with the consideration of undesired outputs is lower than that without the consideration of undesired outputs, which indicates that the efficiency level of sci-tech finance is overestimated if the innovation risk is ignored. (2) The distribution pattern of sci-tech and financial efficiency in Wuhan urban agglomeration is stable from the northwest to southeast,and the range of standard deviation ellipse is gradually expanding. (3) The efficiency of urban scitech finance tends to shift upward, and the transition path is greatly affected by the original state, and it is difficult to achieve leapfrog promotion. (4) According to the results of the spatial lag of spatial Markov chain,the neighborhood type significantly effects on state transition of urban sci-tech financial efficiency,it has stronger neighbour effect on the spatial distribution,namely the transfer direction is almost consistent with neighboring city type.