中国石油进口“买涨不买落”的经验研究和博弈分析

本文对近年来中国石油进口量和价格之间的长期和短期关系进行了经验研究,研究结果表明,即使考虑到中国经济增长对石油需求的影响,依然存在着“买涨不买落”的问题。显然,仅仅依靠需求规律,很难对这一现象进行解释。本文进而从博弈的角度进行了分析,分析表明正是进口商的最佳进口战略选择,导致了中国石油进口的“买涨不买落”。

Empirical Study and Game Analysis of "Buying When Price Rises and Not Buying When Price Drops" in China''''s Oil Import

This paper provides an empirical study on the long-term and short-term relationshipbetween the oil price and China’s oil import in recent years. The finding of the study shows thatgiven the effect of economic growth, the problem of buying when price rises and not buying whenprice drops still exists. Obviously, it is difficult to explain the phenomenon simply by means of thelaw of demand. This paper then gives a game analysis showing that it is just the importer’s beststrategy that causes the problem.