Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050 |
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Authors: | Wolf Grossmann Karl W Steininger Christoph Schmid Iris Grossmann |
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Institution: | (1) Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Leechgasse 25, 8010 Graz, Austria;(2) International Center for Climate and Society, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA;(3) Department of Economics, University of Graz, Universitaetsstr. 15, 8010 Graz, Austria;(4) Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA; |
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Abstract: | Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first
time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight
has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some
regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments
and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that
by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment
in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first
time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight
has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some
regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments
and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that
by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment
in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US2010 by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050.
Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied. |
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