中国、日本、美国生产性服务业出口增长的效应分解及其对比分析——基于 CMS模型的分析

中国、美国、日本三国作为全球主要的经济实体和贸易大国,其生产性服务贸易出口近年来呈现出不同的绩效特点。本文通过借鉴固定市场份额(CMS)模型,把中、日、美三国生产性服务业出口绩效分解成国际需求引致效应、结构性效应和产业竞争力效应,并探讨各种效应对生产性服务贸易出口增长的真实影响。最后,提出改善中国生产性服务业出口绩效的政策建议。

Decomposition and Comparative Analyses on the Export Growth

As the largest economic entities and major trading nations,China,Japan and the United States have shown different export performance characteristics of their producer services in recent years.Based on constant market share model(CMS model),this paper decomposed the export performance of producer services of the three countries into demand-induced effect,structural effect and industrial competitiveness effect,and then explored the real influence of these various effects on export growth.Finally,the paper put forward some suggestions for improving the export performance of China’s producer services.