人民币汇率变动对中国出口商品结构的影响分析

通过1985年～2010年资源密集型产品出口额(SITC0-4)、劳动密集型产品出口额(SITC6、SITC8)和资本技术密集型产品出口额(SITC5、SITC7)与人民币实际有效汇率指数及非市场因素出口退税额的协整分析,认为出口额的汇率弹性由大到小依次为劳动密集型产品、资本技术密集型产品、资源密集型产品,因而人民币实际有效汇率升值有利于优化我国出口商品结构,至少是工业制成品出口结构.同时,从出口退税额前的相关系数来看,中国应转变出口退税的政策倾向,加大对资本技术密集型产品出口的支持力度.

Analysis of the impact of RMB Exchange Rate Movement on China's Export Commodity Structure

This paper makes cointegration analysis of relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate,export tax rebate and export amounts of resource-intensive,labor-intensive and capital-and technology-intensive products respectively.Then it comes to conclusion that exchange rate elasticity of export amounts decline from labor-intensive products,capital-and technology-intensive products,resource-intensive products successively.Therefore,the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to China’s export commodity structure optimization,at least to the structure optimization of manufactured products.Meanwhile,by observing the coefficiency of the export tax rebate,we can get another conclusion that China should adjust its export tax rebate policy to strengthen its support for exporting capital-and technology-intensive products.