普京时代的油气政策走向与中俄能源合作前景

2000年普京首次成为总统后实施的油气政策可以概括为:设置专门机构、扶植国有企业,强化油气资源的政府管理;修改资源性法律、改革税制,确保国家收入;开拓新兴亚太市场,确保油气出口的最大利益.2012年普京第三次当选总统后,俄罗斯能源政策的决策重心由政府转移至总统府.由于以梅德韦杰夫为首的俄政府仍希望保留在能源决策过程中的一定权限,因此两者间的利益协调将是俄罗斯能源政策决策的关键.为了确保油气产量的稳定增长,俄罗斯将不得不修改已有的税收政策和资源利用政策,但修改的力度仍然取决于决策层内部的利益协调程度.俄罗斯今后将越来越重视亚太市场,这给中俄在油气领域带来更多的合作机会.中俄油气合作在取得显著成果的同时,也留下了许多值得反思和总结的地方.从对俄罗斯今后几年的政策预期来看,中俄间的油气合作还有非常大的潜力.

Trend of oil & gas policies in the Putin Era and the prospects for Sino-Russian energy cooperation

The oil and gas policies implemented after Vladimir Putin became the Russian president for the first time in 2000 can be summarized as follows: to establish special departments, prop up state-owned enterprises and tighten governmental management of oil & gas resources; to amend resource related laws and reform the tax system to guarantee national revenue; to open up the emerging Asia-Pacific market and guarantee maximum benefits from oil & gas exports. In 2012, Putin was elected president for the third time, and the presidential palace took the place of the government as the key decision-maker for Russia’s energy policies. However, the Russian government headed by Dmitry Medvedev still hoped to maintain certain authority over energy decision- making, therefore, the coordination of interests between the two will be the key issue regarding Russia’s decision making with regard to energy policies. To ensure the stable growth of oil & gas production, Russia will have to modify its existing tax and resource utilization policies, but the extent of the modification is still subject to the coordination of interests between the decision-makers. In the future, Russia will attach greater importance to the Asia-Pacific market, which will result in increased opportunities for Sino-Russian oil & gas cooperation. While significant achievements have been made during the cooperation, some points require reflection and review. According to Russia’s expectations for the next few years, Sino-Russian oil & gas cooperation still has enormous potential.