震后日本经济对中国经济影响的实证研究

日本地震使其经济遭受重创并引发了对中国经济影响的思考。本文选取1996年1月到2011年4月中日美三国宏观经济景气指数建立VEC模型进行实证研究,并结合宏观经济数据分析,认为震后日本经济下行会直接导致中国经济短期内同向波动,并通过影响外部经济环境间接对中国经济产生不利影响,诸多影响在中国对日出口和日本对华投资方面表现突出。并针对这一问题提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis of Effects of Japanese Economy on Chinese Economy after the Earthquake

Japanese economy is going downside again after the 3.11 Earthquake,leads people to think about its impact on Chinese economy.This paper selects the macro-economic sentiment index of China,Japan and the U.S.as variables,and establishes a vector error correction model(VEC) with data series through January 1996-April 2011.The research results show that the economic fluctuations in Japan will cause China’s economic fluctuation in the same direction in the short term,and can bring some disadvantageous effects indirectly through deteriorating China’ s external economic conditions.This paper argues that the current economic downturn in Japan has many adverse effects on Chinese economy,particularly in China’s exports to Japan and Japan’ FDI in China.Based on the study,relative countermeasures are recommended.