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Macroeconomic shocks,bank stability and the housing market in Venezuela
Affiliation:1. Center for Latin American Monetary Studies — CEMLA, Mexico;2. Economic Research Office of the Central Bank of Venezuela, Av. Urdaneta Esq. Las Carmelitas, 1010 Caracas, Venezuela;1. University of South Australia, School of Commerce, Adelaide, Australia;2. University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Department of Decision Sciences, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka;3. American University in Bulgaria, Department of Economics, Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria;1. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA;2. Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada;1. Lund University and Centre for Financial Econometrics Deakin University, Australia;2. Centre for Financial Econometrics Deakin University, Australia;1. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, the Netherlands;2. De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, 1017 ZN, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Abstract:The interplay between leverage, house prices and financial instability may depend on the nature of shocks affecting an economy and its policy setting. We investigate which conditions or shocks explain financial stability and house prices in Venezuela. Rising financial instability is observationally associated with tight monetary conditions, high interest rates and an appreciated domestic currency. Under the current institutional framework, fiscal and foreign exchange policy actions deliver the strongest monetary effects affecting bank funding and stability. Real house prices respond to loose monetary conditions and real demand shocks. Findings suggest that macroprudential prescriptions should aim at stabilizing bank funding.
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