中国出口波动对经济增长的风险分析

出口可以通过需求、投资、就业、经济结构、知识传播、资本流入、规模经济效应等多种途径影响经济增长,即出口波动会带来经济增长的风险。实证表明,中国的出口波动对经济增长波动的风险很大,但这种影响是潜在的,实际上往往不会发生,因为出口波动对经济增长的影响会被稳定经济的相反力量所抵消。但如果经济增长有潜在风险累积的时候,出口的突然下降也许会成为经济风险发生并放大的导火线。

Analysis on the Risk of China's Export Fluctuation to Economic Growth

Through many factors such as demand,investment,employment,economic structure, knowledge diffusion,capital inflow,and economies of scale,export can affect economic growth.This effect means the export fluctuation can cause economic growth risks.Empirical results indicate that export fluctuation in China has a great effect on economic growth,but this risk is latent and usually has not taken place in practice for being counteracted by other factors stablizing economic growth.When economic growth risks accumulate to a certain degree,the abrupt decline of export may fuse and magnify the risks.