汇率波动对机电行业就业影响的分析

本文利用2001-2010年我国机电行业的203家上市公司的面板数据以及2000-2010年我国机电行业各子行业的季度数据,分别从微观层面和行业层面实证研究汇率变动对我国机电行业就业的影响。研究发现,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电行业就业的负面影响的短期效应明显低于长期效应,且具有明显滞后性,表明更富弹性的汇率制度有利于缓解汇率波动对就业的影响。同时机电企业规模经济的发展、产品附加值的提升对就业有显著支撑作用,因此在人民币汇率日益走高的背景下,机电行业更应加速行业资源整合和产业升级。

Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on the Employment of Electromechanical Industry

Using the panel data of 203 listed companies of electromechanical industry from 2001 to 2010 and the quarterly data of sub-electromechanical industry from 2000 to 2010 in China,we empirically analyze the impact of exchange rate movements on the employment China’s electromechanical industry from the micro-level and industry levels,respectively.The results show that the short-term negative effects of real effective exchange rate of RMB against electromechanical industry employment was lower than the long-term effects,and the short-term negative effects has a significant lag effect.So the more flexible exchange rate system contributes to alleviating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on employment.The analysis also reveal that the development of scale economies and the value-added enhance significantly increase the employment.So electromechanical industry should accelerate the integration of resources and industrial upgrading.