Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning? |
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| Institution: | 1. USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, NYC Urban Field Station, 431 Walter Reed Road, Bayside, NY 11359-1137, United States;2. School of Economics, University of Maine, 5572 Winslow Hall, Orono, ME 04469, United States;1. Agronomist Freelance—Viterbo, Italy;2. Department for Innovation in Biological Agro Food and Forest system (DIBAF)—Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Italy;3. Department of Economics and Management (DEIM)—Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Italy;1. Dipartimento di Economia e Impresa- DEIM, Università della Tuscia,Via del Paradiso 47, 01100 Viterbo, Italy;2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – FAO, V.le delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy;3. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Cra 27 #64-60 Manizales, Caldas, Colombia;4. Dipartimento per la Innovazione nei Sistemi Biologici Agroalimentari e Forestali – DIBAF, Università della Tuscia, Via S. C. De Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy;1. Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 25, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark;2. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark;1. Belarusian State Technological University, Department of Economics and Plant Management, Belarus;2. Belarusian State Technological University, Production Organization and Real Estate Economics Department, Sverdlov Street 13a, 220006 Minsk, Belarus;3. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Department of Economic and Regional Policy, Oczapowskiego Street 4, 10-724 Olsztyn, Poland;4. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Department of Real Estate Management and Regional Development, Prawocheńskiego Street 15, 10-724 Olsztyn, Poland |
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| Abstract: | Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning. |
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| Keywords: | Scenario Citizen engagement Planning Self-efficacy |
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