Drivers of land change: Human-environment interactions and the Atlantic forest transition in the Paraíba Valley,Brazil |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Environmental Studies and Research, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP 13083-867, Brazil;2. EMBRAPA, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Brasília, DF 70770-901, Brazil;3. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA;1. Department of Anthropology, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States;2. Department of Psychology, Paulista University, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil;3. Department of Genetics, Ribeirao Preto Medical School, University of Sao Paulo-Ribeirao Preto, Brazil;4. Center for Medical Genomics at HCFMRP/USP, Brazil;5. Department of Internal Medicine, University of São Paulo-Ribeirão Preto, Brazil;1. Núcleo de Controle de Qualidade de Medicamentos e Correlatos—NCQMC, Departamento de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco—UFPE, Brazil;2. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Materiais Avançados—LIMAV, Centro de Ciências da Natureza—CCN, Universidade Federal do Piauí—UFPI, Brazil;3. CNC.IBILI, Universidade de Coimbra, 3000-548 Coimbra, Portugal;4. Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade de Coimbra, 3000-548 Coimbra, Portugal;5. I3S, Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, IBMC—Instituto de Biologia Molecular e Celular, Genetics of Cognitive Dysfunction, Rua do Campo Alegre 823, 4150-180 Porto, Portugal;1. University of Campinas, Laboratory of Environmental Planning (LAPLA/DRH/FEC), CP 6021, CEP 13083-970, Campinas (SP), Brazil;2. University of São Paulo, Laboratory of Landscape Ecology and Conservation (LEPAC/IB/USP), Rua do Matão, 321–Travessa 14, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, Brazil;3. University of Campinas, Laboratory of Environmental Planning (LAPLA/DRH/FEC), CP 6021, CEP 13083-970, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil;1. Departament of Forest Sciences, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias 11, Piracicaba, SP 13418-260, Brazil;2. Centro de Pesquisas Ambientais do Nordeste (Cepan), Rua Dom Pedro Henrique, 167 Recife, PE, Brazil;3. Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact, Executive Secretariat, Brazil;4. World Resources Institute, Brazil;5. Departament of Biological Sciences, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias 11, Piracicaba, SP 13418-260, Brazil;6. Global Forest and Climate Change Programa (GFCCP), International Union for Conservation of Nature, Washington, DC, USA;7. Environmental Secretariat of São Paulo State, Brazil;8. Reserva da Biosfera da Mata Atlântica, Brazil;9. Conservation International, Brazil;1. Grand Challenges in the Ecosystem and Environment, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK;2. Department of Ecology, Biosciences Institute, University of São Paulo, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | Human societies constantly interact with the environment through mutual feedbacks and adaptations. The aim of this research was to analyze human and environmental dimensions so as to understand how the dynamic processes of land use and land cover change are contributing to the increase of forest cover observed between 1985 and 2011 in the Paraíba Valley, Brazil. The forestry sector, based on eucalyptus plantations, is given particular attention due to its role in these change processes. Multi-layer perception neural network (MPNN) models were adopted to evaluate the influence of independent variables in the process of the forest transition. Based on the model's results, we conclude that the process is conditioned by a set of biophysical and socioeconomic variables that operate during different historical periods and in different landscape settings. The proximity of Atlantic forest remnants was influential in the forest transition for the three periods analyzed: 1985–1995, 1995–2005, and 2005–2011. In the first period of change (1985–1995), topography was most influential. Between the periods of 1995–2005 and 2005–2011, the proximity to eucalyptus plantations was an important factor, indicating a high probability of native forest recovery occurring in the vicinity of these monocultural areas. The forest transition tends to occur in areas less suitable for agriculture at the outset, but as these areas are replaced by forest cover, socioeconomic drivers such as farm credit and economic development play important roles in forest recovery. |
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| Keywords: | Land use change models Multi-layer perception neural network Forest transition Tropical forest |
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