国际货币政策对中国贸易顺差影响研究

在最优跨时消费的基础上,建立国际货币政策影响贸易收支的短期和长期理论模型,使用该模型对中国1979—2008年的贸易收支进行实证分析,结果表明:美元的过度发行是造成中国贸易顺差的重要因素;短期内,使用人民币升值的办法对平衡中国贸易收支的作用较小;消费不足不能解释中国长期的贸易收支问题,长期的贸易收支是最优跨时贸易的结果,体现出中国与其它国家贸易的互补性、互利性。

Research on the Impacts of International Monetary Policy on China's Trade Surplus

Based on the optimal intertemporal consumption,the model of effects of international monetary policies on short-term and long-term trade balance is constructed. The empirical analysis of China′s trade balance from 1979 to 2008 shows that the Chinese trade surplus is caused by the over-issued U.S. dollars; RMB appreciation has a small contribution to China′s surplus in the short term. Insufficient consumption can not explain the reason of long-term trade balance. The long-term trade balance is the result of optimal long-term inter-temporal trade,which reflects the complementary and mutual benefits between China and other nations.