消费稳定、消费增长与居民福利* ——对于扩大内需的新寓意

城乡居民消费取决于两个视阈的特征：消费波动和消费增长。扩大内需尤其是消费需求一直以来都在致力于促进消费增长，但效果却不理想，而稳定消费作为被忽视的另一个视阈，值得关注吗？本文基于我国省际城乡1985-2011年实际人均消费数据，测度消费增速放缓和消费波动的福利成本，实证分析我国省级城乡层面两种福利成本的大小关系，从定量意义上说明稳定消费为扩大内需不容忽视的新视阈。研究发现，无论是城镇，还是农村，各省份消费波动的福利成本并不必然远小于消费增速放缓的福利成本，相关参数合理取值范围之内，前者大于后者是更为普遍的情形。因此，稳定消费视阈扩大内需具有不容忽视的政策空间，政府应该在把促进消费增长作为扩大内需工作重点的同时，合理兼顾消费稳定。

CONSUMPTION STABILITY,CONSUMPTION GROWTH AND CONSUMER WELFARE---New Implications for Expanding Domestic Demand

Based on the urban and rural provincial real consumption per person data for the period of 1985-2011 in China, this paper estimates the welfare costs of consumption volatility and slowdown in consumption growth rate. The results show that the welfare cost of consumption volatility is not essentially less than the welfare cost of slowdown in consumption growth rate. As a result, Chinese government should pay attention to consumption volatility while it attaches importance to consumption growth.