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Network VAR models to measure financial contagion
Affiliation:1. Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Italy;2. Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, An-Najah National University, Palestine;1. University of Sousse, Higher Institute of Management of Sousse, Tunisia;2. University of Paris-Est, IRG, Créteil, France;3. Arab East Colleges, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;1. ESC Rennes Business School, Department of Finance and Accounting, France;2. Kent Business School, University of Kent, UK
Abstract:Financial contagion among countries can arise from different channels, the most important of which are financial markets and bank lending. The paper aims to build an econometric network approach to understand the extent to which contagion spillovers (from one country to another) aris from financial markets, from bank lending, or from both. To achieve this aim we consider a model specification strategy which combines Vector Autoregressive models with network models. The paper contributes to the contagion literature with a model that can consider bank exposures and financial market prices, jointly and not only separately. From an empirical viewpoint, our results show that both bilateral exposures and market prices act as contagion channels in the transmission of shocks arising from a country to other countries.
Keywords:Bayesian Inference  Financial Contagion  Network Models  VAR  Bank Lending  Financial Markets  C01  C32  G01  G12  G21
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