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Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies
Institution:1. School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China;2. School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China;1. Institute of Business and Management, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, 118 Chung-Hsiao West Road, Section 1, Taipei, Taiwan;2. Graduate Institute of Finance, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Keelung Rd., Section 4, Taipei, Taiwan;3. Center for General Education, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan;4. Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center, National Applied Research Laboratories, 106 Heping East Road, Section 2, Taipei, Taiwan;5. Power Generation Division, Taiwan Power Company, 242, Roosevelt Road, Section 3, Taipei, Taiwan;1. Graduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, 88049-970 Florianopolis S.C., Brazil;2. Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, 88049-970 Florianopolis S.C., Brazil;3. Department of Statistics, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia, D.F., Brazil;4. Graduate Program in Business Administration, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia D.F., Brazil;5. Graduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Espirito Santo, 29075-910 Vitoria E.S., Brazil
Abstract:Inflation expectations can be inferred from treasury yields data. Previous studies utilizing such data have found evidence for the role of inflation targeting in anchoring inflation expectations in a number of developed market economies. The goal of this paper is to extend the evidence for emerging market economies. We estimate inflation expectations from nominal treasury yields data and infer the anchoring of inflation expectations from the sensitivity of inflation expectations to current inflation rates. Our analysis shows that the effect of inflation targeting is statistically significant in emerging market economies as well as in developed market economies and that the magnitude is marginally greater in the former. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.
Keywords:Inflation targeting  Anchoring of inflation expectations  Nominal treasury yields  The sensitivity of inflation expectations to current inflation rates  Emerging market economies
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