Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Business and Management, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, 118 Chung-Hsiao West Road, Section 1, Taipei, Taiwan;2. Graduate Institute of Finance, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Keelung Rd., Section 4, Taipei, Taiwan;3. Center for General Education, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan;4. Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center, National Applied Research Laboratories, 106 Heping East Road, Section 2, Taipei, Taiwan;5. Power Generation Division, Taiwan Power Company, 242, Roosevelt Road, Section 3, Taipei, Taiwan;1. Shenzhen Central Sub-branch, The People’s Bank of China, Shenzhen, China;2. School of Finance, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, China;3. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China;1. School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China;2. School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China |
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| Abstract: | Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention. |
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| Keywords: | Reversal of investor sentiment Social mood cycle Growth modeling Market liquidity |
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