Large volcanic eruptions and their influence on air transport: The case of Japan

Our research purpose is to estimate the impact of large volcanic eruptions on air transport and discuss how to reduce their negative impact through emergency operations. In particular, we focus on East Asia, where ash from the eruptions impedes air transport. First, we use Collaborative Actions for Renovation of Air Traffic System (CARATS) Open Data that are provided by the Civil Aviation Bureau (CAB) of Japan and estimate how many flights will be affected by volcanic ash. Furthermore, we discuss the dispersal of the volcanic ash that was discharged by the large-scale eruptions of Mount Sakurajima. This crossed over the main part of Japan from west to east. Through a simulation, we found that a volcanic eruption that lasts 14 h would cause a substantial number of the airports, including the major gateway airports, in Japan to be shut down simultaneously. It would also cause half of the airports’ scheduled flights to be cancelled or diverted. Subsequently, based on the impact estimation, we discuss the possibility of provisionally parking aircraft outside the damaged areas. Our results suggest that the airports located in the northern Tohoku area and the New Chitose airport are the best to accept evacuation flights to avoid risks in aviation following a volcanic eruption.