The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China

Despite extensive use of weather data to adjust replenishment and inventory strategies in the retail industry, these companies do clearly know the effect of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance. How does weather affect consumers' purchasing behavior and thus retail performance? We study empirically these questions by analyzing more than 6 million transactions made by more than 1.62 million unique consumers at 146 convenience stores in a convenience store chain in China. We choose sun, rain, temperature, and air quality index as the main weather variables. We use the average number of items per order and the average price of each item in each order as indicators of consumer behavior, and use store daily sales as an indicator of retail performance. We found that under rainy weather, people will buy more products with higher item prices in one order. When temperature rises, people will buy fewer products with a lower item price in one order. In addition, sunny weather and rainy weather have a positive impact on daily sales than cloudy weather. Air quality has a negative impact on daily sales, while temperature has a positive impact on sales. Finally, we study the impact of weather on different product categories. We find that the results depend on the product category characteristics.