中国经济趋势预测:稳定、调整和发展

在连续17年单边快速升值之后,人民币汇率走势目前转为在浮动中缓慢升值,这有利于中国出口和经济安全与发展。中国经济增长潜力不容忽视。未来5至7年,中国经济增长率应保持在8%以上,物价控制在6%以下。在发挥传统产业潜力的基础上,实现产业升级和发展模式转换,关键是克服既得利益集团干扰,避免发生重大决策失误。中国作为人口大国,经济发展应主要依靠内需,启动内需应进行一系列重大改革,如建立社会保障基金,改革房地产业等。

A Trend Forecast of Chinese Economy:Stability, Adjustment and Development

RMB exchange rate shifts from the 17-year period of unilateral quick appreciation to the current period of slow appreciation in fluctuations,which is favorable for China’s export and economic safety and development.It is predicated that in the coming 5-7years,China’s GDP will maintain an over 8% growth rate,China’s inflation level will be controlled below 6%,and China will be able to withstand the challenge of the global financial crisis and will not be faced with any serious financial crisis.The paper suggests that China should overcome the interfering of vested interest groups and avoid making any wrong important decision in the process of upgrading its industries and reforming its development modes on the basis of exploiting the potential of traditional industries.In addition,as a nation of large population,China should mainly rely on its domestic demand to develop its economy,and should take some important measures of reform such as the establishment of social security fund,the reform of real estate industry,etc.