“双向”分权视角下的财政风险实证研究

双向分权即政府向市场分权与政府内部财政分权。在分权推进的过程中,伴随着财政风险的增减变化,理论分析和实证检验发现:政府向市场分权有利于降低财政风险,但这种积极影响呈现出下降趋势;政府内部财政分权程度的提高不利于财政风险的降低;双向财政分权立体交叉推进模式所产生的制度性摩擦大大增加了财政风险。因此需要以合理的制度安排消除改革过程中产生的各种社会风险。

An Empirical Study of Fiscal Risk from the Perspective of Two-way Decentralization

Two-way decentralization refers to government-to-market decentralization and intergovernmental fiscal decentralization.In the process of decentralization,fiscal risk increases or decreases with the progress of decentralization.Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test with the use of provincial panel data,the paper finds that: the decentralization from government to market is conducive to the reduction of fiscal risk,but its role of positive impact shows a downward trend;the improvement in the degree of fiscal decentralization within the government is not conducive to the reduction of fiscal risk;the institutional friction generated by the current vertical-crossing progression mode of two-way fiscal decentralization significantly increases fiscal risk.Therefore,it is necessary to further rationalize the institutional arrangement in order to eliminate all kinds of social risk arising from the reform process.