| 我国商品房价格增长与宏观经济因素的关联性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘玉红,詹世鸿.我国商品房价格增长与宏观经济因素的关联性研究[J].生产力研究,2012(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘玉红 詹世鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学商学院,吉林长春,130012 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目资助"权力范式下的经济非均衡研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 文章基于我国商品房价格增长率、利率、工业增加值增速、通货膨胀率以及货币供给量增长率五个主要的宏观经济指标,利用多变量向量自回归(VAR)模型研究了我国商品房价格增长与宏观经济运行之间的相互关系。所得到的结果表明,我国通货膨胀率和货币供给量增长率能够显著影响商品房价格增长率,而利率和工业增加值增速对我国商品房价格增长率的影响作用较弱,因此,控制房地产行业的货币供给对限制房地产价格快速增长是一项行之有效的调控政策。
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| 关 键 词： | 宏观经济 商品房价格 VAR模型 |
On Relation between Rising of Housing Price and Micro-economic Factors in China |
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| Abstract: | Housing industry has been a pillar industry, but the soaring speed of housing price is much quicker than the growth speed of residents' income and consumption, which affects stability of China's economy. Exploring micro-factors leading to soaring housing price is helpful for China to control housing price. After making an analysis on growth rate of housing price, interest rate, growth rate of industrial added value, inflation rate and growth of currency supply, the author works out some policies to control the rising of housing price. |
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