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The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality
Institution:1. School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long Taipa, Macau, China;2. School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903, Singapore;1. Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Institute of Economics, Pisa, Italy;2. Universitá Politecnica delle Marche, Piazzale Martelli Raffaele, 8, Ancona, 60121, Italy;3. University School of Advanced Studies (IUSS), Department of Science, Technology and Society, Piazza delle Vittoria, 15, Pavia, 27100, Italy;4. Universitat Jaume I, Department of Economics, Avda Vicente Sos Baynat s/n E-12071 Castello de la Plana, Spain;1. International Monetary Fund, United States;2. Department of Economics, Wylie Hall, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 47405, United States;1. Associate Professor, University of Perugia, Via Pascoli 20, Perugia 06123 Italy;2. National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom;1. Digit Research Centre, Jubilee Building, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9SL, UK;2. Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria;3. Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vordere Zollamtsstraße 3, Vienna 1030, Austria;4. Department of Economics, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37073, Germany
Abstract:We build a life-cycle model in which a representative firm produces a final good using routine and non-routine labor as well as traditional and automation capital (e.g. robots). Robots can substitute for routine labor. We show that both, population aging and higher robot productivity, foster the increased use of robotics. Population aging decreases and progress in robot technology increases long-run output per capita. In both cases, inequalities in labor income, wealth and consumption rise. Although expected advances in automation technologies are able to mitigate or even circumvent output losses in the aggregate and improve consumption possibilities for everyone, this comes at the cost of increased inequality because non-routine workers benefit disproportionately.
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