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The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag
Affiliation:1. School of Management and Economics, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China;2. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China;3. School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Abstract:The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.
Keywords:Internet P2P lending platform  credit risk contagion  SEIR model with time lag  simulation analysis
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