我国财政政策作用机制与经济周期波动的相关性研究

我国积极财政政策在总需求管理过程中起到了重要作用.通过判断我国财政政策工具和财政政策规模与经济周期波动之间的关联,描述结构VAR模型中财政政策的作用和反馈过程,我们发现我国积极财政政策操作过程中体现出了一定程度的相机选择性和对经济周期阶段的依赖性,这意味着在我国经济增长已经出现"软扩张"的经济周期态势下,应当适当调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强货币政策的组合作用,继续保持积极财政政策对国内产出的作用方向.

Research on the Correlation between China Fiscal Policy Effects and Business Cycle Fluctuations

The active fiscal policy has played very important role in aggregate demand management in China econo- my. We find that fiscal policy is made by discretion in some contents and depended on business cycle, by analyzing the relationships between fiscal policy scale and tools and the business cycle and describing the effects of fiscal policy and its feedback rule in the structural VAR models. These empirical findings have the implications that we should extend the term structure of fiscal policy and adjust the corresponding tools in facing with the appearance of "soft expansions" , pay more attentions to fiscal policy combinations with active monetary policy, and keep the pro-cyclical directions of fiscal policy.