服务贸易的货物贸易条件效应研究——基于伯格斯模型的分析与扩展

文章基于伯格斯模型,分析检验了服务贸易的净进口与我国货物价格贸易条件恶化之间的关系,初步证明了该模型在我国的适用性。进一步地,文章对2004-2008年我国价格贸易条件恶化有所趋缓这一特征进行了分析。结果表明,不同服务部门的净进口对我国货物贸易条件的影响不尽相同。文章得出的政策启示在于:当考察我国服务业开放和服务贸易自由化的收益时,要同时注意到货物价格贸易条件恶化可能带来的福利损失;我国在制定服务业对外开放与服务贸易自由化发展战略时,采取逐步开放和参与的战略尤为重要;另外,可以优先加强对通信、建筑、计算机和信息服务、咨询以及电影音像五大类服务部门的扶持以促进其出口。

On the Effect of Service Trade on Terms of Trade in Goods:Analysis Based on Burgess Model

Based on Burgess model,this paper analyzes the relationship between the net import of service trade and the deterioration of net barter terms of trade in goods in China.It elementarily proves the applicability of Burgess model to China.Then it analyzes the slowdown trend of the deterioration of net barter terms of trade from 2004 to 2008.The results show that the effects of net import on terms of trade in goods in China vary with the service sectors.The analytical conclusions provide policy suggestions about paying attention to welfare losses caused by the deterioration of net barter terms of trade in goods when studying the returns from China’s participation in service opening-up and service trade liberalization,adopting the strategy of gradual service opening-up and participation in service trade liberalization,and giving first priority to five service sectors including computer and information services,consulting services,and other commercial services in order to promote the export.