经济增长视角下地方政府债务负担率动态标准研究--基于西部Y省县域非线性Panel Data模型

政府债务负担率标准并非固定，主要由债务边际社会成本与债务边际社会收益相等决定，如果其边际成本降低或边际收益提高，债务负担率标准将提升，相反会下降。本文将地方政府债务置于财政支出与经济增长的关系框架下，通过对西部Y省106个县域地区进行实证研究，发现不同时间段对应的债务负担率标准不同，2005－2006、2007－2008、2009－2010分别为14．28％、11．98％和14．16％，同时也发现各地地方政府在竞相超越既定债务负担率标准举债，带来较大的债务风险隐患。因此，防范我国当前地方政府债务风险需要重视两个问题：一是根据各地实际债务边际社会成本和收益，制定动态债务负担率标准，用于债务风险的监测预警；二是在解决实际债务负担率较高问题上，重点要从数量上化解债务转化为从质量上提高债务边际社会收益和降低债务边际社会成本。

A Study on the Dynamic Standards of the Local Government Debt Burden Rate from the Perspective of Economic Growth:A Nonlinear Data Panel Model Based on the Data in Y Province of Western China

The government debt burden rate standard is not fixed and mainly depends on debt’s marginal social benefits being equal to its marginal social costs.If its marginal social costs decrease or its marginal social benefits increase, the stand-ard of debt burden rate will increase.On the contrary, it will decline.This paper puts the local government debt in the relation framework of the fiscal expenditure and the economic growth and conducts an empirical research of 106 county-level areas in Y province of western China.The findings indicate that the standards of debt burden rate correspondent to different time quantum are different:14.28%, 11.98%and 14.16%for .2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010 respectively , The local governments are also found to be competing with each other to raise loans beyond the fixed standard of debt burden rate, which results in greater potential debt risks.Therefore, two problems need to be addressed to prevent the current local government debt risks:one is to set a dynamic debt burden rate standard for debt risk monitoring and early warning according to the actual marginal social costs and benefits of debt in different reagions;the other is, in solving the problem of a relatively high burden rate, the emphasis should be shifted from resolving the debt conversion in quantitative terms to increase debt’s marginal social benefits and reduce its marginal social cost in qualitative terms.