中国对外贸易运行分析(1999～2009)——指数方法与关系结构

本文设计了一套三大类指数和四层综合指数所构成的中国对外贸易运行指数体系,利用偏最小二乘路径模型对中国1999～2009年来的相关数据进行了计算和分析,对中国十余年来的贸易运行情况进行总体的把握和描述。经贸易运行指数运算表明,中国自加入WTO以来,对外贸易的流量、结构等各方面的水平均有大幅度提高。但是从2008年开始,由于受到国际金融危机的影响,各方面的贸易指数增长开始放缓,到2009年各贸易指数均开始出现不同程度的下降。

Operation Analysis on China's foreign trade(1999～209): Index Method and Relational Structure

This paper designs a set of China′s foreign trade index system constituted by three types of indexes and the four-layer composite index.The author has calculated and analyzed the relevant data from 1999 to 2009 in China using PLS Path Model,and also made an analysis of China′s trade operation for more than 10 years.The trade performance index shows that after China′s WTO accession,the level of the trade flows of foreign trade,trade structure and other relevant aspects have a substantial increase.However,from 2008 onwards,due to the international financial crisis,the growth rate of trade indexes of all aspects began to slow down.What's worse,by 2009,the trade indexes began to decline in varying degrees.