A methodology for reducing technological risk

The purpose of the paper is to suggest a quantitative method for analyzing the innovation risk from both technological and an economic point of view as a contribution to the strategic evaluation and planning process. Specifically the method provides a predictive evaluation of the probability of the commercial success of technological breakthroughs.
The method is a quantification of the qualitative method originally developed by White and Graham. It consists of a stepwise process in which the benefits of a technology are classified under four major headings: inventive merit, embodiment merit, market merit, and operational merit. Within each heading, the target technology is evaluated by pairwise comparison with alternative technologies, using a Saaty-type procedure. The decision-maker can conduct a sensitivity analysis and the evaluation can be made collaborative by using a group of judges.
The methodology which is computerized is described in some detail. Its use is illustrated by applying it to an hypothetical project in the field of information retrieval in which CD-ROM is compared with three alternative technologies.