伊拉克战争与世界石油形势

石油是世界能源焦点,海湾地区是世界“油极”。美国等西方国家不可能摆脱对海湾石油的依赖。发动伊拉克战争是为美国石油进口主源地再度移向海湾创造必要的条件;是美国夺取海湾石油控制权的重要战略步骤。伊拉克战争以美国“倒萨控伊”而告终,伊拉克战争对世界石油市场可预期的影响主要有三：首先,美国可以利用伊拉克石油冲击欧佩克油价调控机制,未来几年,国际原油价格有可能低于欧佩克调控机制每桶22美元的下限。其次,美国石油进口的主源地将再次从西半球向东半球转移。第三,伊拉克北部石油出地中海的输油路线将有可能改道,更有利于美国等西方国家完全控制伊拉克石油。

Iraq War and World's Petroleum Situation

Petroleum is the core of world's energy, and the Persian Gulf is the world's "oil pole". The Western countries, such as U.S., can not free themselves from the dependence on Gulf oil. Iraq war created the necessary conditions for America to transfer its main import source again to the Persian Gulf, and was an important strategic step of America's capturing the right to control the Persian Gulf oil. Iraq war ended with the America's "overthrowing Saddam Hussein and Controlling Iraq". It is estimated that there will be three main predictable influences of Iraq war on the world petroleum market. First of all, US can use Iraq's oil to impact OPEC's oil price adjusting and controlling mechanism. In coming years, it is possible that the international oil price will decrease to a level under the lower limit of $22/b set by OPEC's oil price adjusting and controlling mechanism. Secondly, the main oil import source of US will transfer again from western to eastern hemisphere. Thirdly, the oil pipeline of northern Iraq out the Mediterranean Sea most probably will change its route, more favorable to the completely controlling of Iraq's oil by the Western countries, such as US.