山东省产业结构演进与经济增长关系研究

以1996~2006年统计数据为基础,利用偏离—份额分析方法,研究了山东3个经济区产业结构变动与区域经济发展之间的关系,研究结果表明,产业结构的演变趋势符合产业结构演变的一般规律;产业结构演变的空间差异比较明显;产业结构演进对经济增长的影响分为产业结构偏离为负值、竞争力偏离份额为正值,产业结构偏离为正值、竞争力偏离份额为正值2种类型;产业结构变迁对山东各区域经济发展影响较大;运用高新技术改造传统产业,加快传统产业优化升级,大力发展第三产业,以市场需求为导向,培植战略优势产业,应成为今后山东省产业结构调整的战略选择。

The rsearch on the relationship between the evolution Of industry structure and economy growth in Shandong

Bbased on the investigation of the statistical figures in 1996-2006, using Shift-Share Method model, studies systematically the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and regional economy growth in three economic regions in Shandong. It offers a foundation of policy for each regions optimizing the industry structure and promoting regional economy development. The paper comes to the conclusion： the evolution tendency of industrial structure in accordance with the general rule of industry structure evolution; the spatial difference of industry structure evolution is comparatively obvious; the evolution of industry structure that affects the economy growth can be categorized into two types： the shift-share of the industry structure poses negative, and the shift-share model of competitiveness poses positive; the shift-share of the industry structure poses positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness poses positive; the evolution of industry structure affects greatly the development of the each regional economy of Shandong. As the result, the researches claim that the technical innovation of Shandong＇s traditional industry with high-tech, quick optimizing and upgrading of the traditional industry, the vast development of the Third Industry, direction of the market demand, cultivating and forming competitive industries would be the strategic choices of the rearrangement of Shandong＇s industry structure.