中国金融风险预警指标体系研究

近年来,随着亚洲金融危机、美国次贷危机以及欧债危机的爆发,全球金融稳定与金融安全面临空前考验,建立一个积极有效的金融风险预警体系来掌握金融风险的整体动态,以防范、降低和消除金融风险成为了金融研究中迫在眉睫的任务。本文借鉴在国际上有广泛影响的KLR信号分析法,根据本国国情建立了一套金融风险预警指标体系,并进一步确定了每个指标的预警临界值,同时通过主客观综合赋权法赋予每个指标相应的权值,以帮助建立符合我国经济发展现状的金融风险预警机制,并针对我国金融风险现状提出了相应对策与建议。

China finance risk prevention index system research

In recent years,as the Asian financial crisis,the subprime crisis and the European debt crisis burst out,the global financial stability and financial security are facing unprecedented challenge.Creating a positive and effective financial risk early warning system to prevent,reduce and eliminate the financial risk has become the imminent task in financial research.Refer to the KLR signal analysis method and the real national conditions,the paper has established a set of financial risk early warning index system,and given appropriate proposals.