| Abstract: | Technology assessment and science forecasting are based on the long-term forecasting of important processes within complex systems. The Bimodal System Model was developed for their modeling. The system dynamics and the system itself are based on the combined action of two forces: the evolutive intrinsic dynamics and the decisionistic formation. Evolutively intrinsic dynamic forces emerge from two basic principles: assimilation and comprehension (the basis of any individual endeavor) and exchange and interchange (the heart of any communication and interaction between individual people, groups, associations). These forces are solely induced by individual optimization of benefits related to material goods and ideas. From the point of view of their emergence they are heterogeneous and chaotic and are neither globally nor centrally planned. Their effect in a system occurs a million-fold, however uncoordinated. Intrinsic forces are insensitive to other effects (e.g., decisionistic or formative) due to their million-fold, heterogenous origin. Decisionistic formative forces deploy their effect in a system when a community is conscious of being a subject and as such is capable of expressing and translating its coordinated will (decision). The decisionistically formative forces can produce a consistent effect when they are aligned to the evolutive intrinsic forces and utilize their dynamics in a required manner. Therefore, process-oriented priorities must be construed in the course of consensus formation, determination of aims and headroom evaluation, which would allow a concerted and sustained application of the available forces. |
