基于地域差异的后土地财政时期有效过渡研究

研究目的：基于土地财政地域差异情况预判“后土地财政时期”负效应，构建有效过渡政策方案。研究方法：采用层次聚类分析、定性分析与逻辑演绎结合方法。研究结果：将31个省（自治区、直辖市）1999—2000年土地财政情况划分为4种集群类型：发展阶段、旺盛阶段、中期阶段、淡出阶段。从国家土地资源瓶颈约束、系列房地产市场调控政策导致的土地财政不可持续等方面阐释“后土地财政时期”具体涵义，这一时期各地域后续负效应包括：城市化进程中土地不能再持续提供资源与资金支持、由路径依赖导致的土地违法、对生态环境与资源承载力及粮食安全保障的破坏、以风险与破坏式行为获取财政增收。研究结论：各地域在实现城市化过程中还需在不同程度上继续发挥土地财政正向历史功效，针对不同地域土地财政所处的发展阶段及“后土地财政时期”负效应特征，提出过渡转型政策方案。

Effective Transition of Land Finance During the Post-Period of Land Finance Basing on Regional Differences

The purposes of this study are to forecast negative effects of post-period of land financial and set up effective transition policy scheme basing on geographical difference of land finance. Methods of hierarchical cluster analysis, qualitative analysis, and logical deduction are used in this study. The result classifies the 31 provinces into four types: development stage, strong stage, medium-term stage and fade stage. This paper explains the connotation of the post-period of land finance from the aspects of national land resource bottleneck constraints and the unsustainability of land finance caused by real estate price control. This paper elaborates the negative effects of land finance in different regions. The negative effects mainly includes that local governments wouldn’t get sustainable revenue from land transfer during urbanization process, unreasonable income gain from illegal land use, the damages for ecological environment, capability of resources and food security and use risky modes and destructive behaviors to get more revenue. At last, this paper proposes land finance transformation plan according to development stage for different cluster type and the negative effects of the post-period of land finance since the positive effects of land finance are still needed during urbanization.