耕地非农化与中国经济增长质量的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证——基于空间计量经济模型的实证分析

研究目的：分析中国耕地非农化与经济增长质量之间是否存在库兹涅茨曲线并进行验证。研究方法：空间计量经济模型。研究结果：常规面板模型和空间面板模型的结果均显示，中国耕地非农化与经济增长质量之间存在明显的倒“U”型关系，验证了“耕地库兹涅茨曲线”假说，且当经济增长质量（全要素生产率指数)达到1.4087时，耕地非农化与经济增长之间的矛盾将逐渐减小；区域间的耕地非农化确实具有较强的正向空间相关关系，即相邻地区耕地非农化数量变动1%，会导致本地区耕地非农化数量平均变动0.1627%。研究结论：系统地识别、评估区域间耕地非农化与经济增长质量的空间联动性，对于促进区域间耕地总量动态平衡具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。

A Hypothesis on the Kuznets Curve Relation Between Farmland Conversion and Quality of Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Analysis of Spatial Econometric Model

The purpose of the paper is to test whether the Kuznets Curve holds true for farmland conversion and quality of economic growth in China based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1999 to 2007. The method is spatial panel data model, which takes the spatial dependence into account. Most empirical studies of Kuznets Curve for farmland implicitly assume that the farmland conversions of neighboring regions are independent on each other. Neglecting the spatial dependence consequently results in biased empirical results. The results of this paper show that the relationship of farmland conversion and quality of economic growth follows the feature of Kuznets Curve. When the index of economic growth quality is 1.4087, the contradiction between the farmland conversion and economic growth will gradually decrease; there is strongly positive spatial relationship among different regions about the farmland conversion, that is, the amount of farmland conversion in neighboring regions changes 1%, this will lead to alteration of 0.1627% on the regional farmland conversion. On the basis of above conclusions, some corresponding policy implications are put forward.