“黄箱”政策的农业增收效果:以粮食作物为例

为定量评价我国农业政策的农业增收效果,本文以粮食作物为例,借用世界银行TRI(贸易抑制指数)和NRA(名义支持率)数据库,分别在粮食作物亩均实际收益与农产品出口贸易抑制指数和农产品进口贸易抑制指数之间建立动态计量模型,采用协整分析、脉冲反应函数和方差分解分析等方法对我国"黄箱政策"的农业增收效果进行了实证分析。研究发现,我国农业自由化程度远高于高收入国家,且存有"重调产出、轻调投入"和"重经济效益、轻粮食安全"等政策倾向;生产者的"超调"行为使得粮食生产收益成倒"N"型变化;长期内"黄箱政策"并不是粮食作物增收的主要因素。

The Evaluation on Effect on Increasing Peasant Incomes of Chinese Amber Policies: Case of Grain Crops

Increasing peasant incomes is the main goals of agricultural policy.To evaluate quantitatively the effect of increasing peasant incomes of Chinese agricultural policy,we have used TRI and NRA database and then constructed a dynamic econometric model between acre real earnings of grain crop and TRI for import or export of agricultural products.We then analyzed the effect of increasing peasant incomes of Chinese Amber Policies with co-integration analysis technology,impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the model.We have found that there is more liberalization degree of agriculture in China than that in higher income country,and there is a inclination of "emphasize output,Ignore input" and "emphasized earnings,ignore food security",overshoot of producer make the dynamic earnings of grain crop is a reverse "N",Chinese Amber Policies is not the main factor which could affect earnings of grain crop in the long time.We then have put forward some policy proposal in the last.