Macroeconomic Forecasting in Hong Kong: A Survey

This study reports the results of a survey on how the business firms, government, and academics in Hong Kong prepare their forecasts, what methods they prefer, whether they keep records of forecasting performance, and the usage of their forecasts. The survey questionnaire was sent to fortynine participants and the results showed that subjective techniques are commonly used by Hong Kong firms in various forecasting situations despite the increasing availability of computers that make possible the efficient use of quantitative forecasting techniques. Also, very few firms performed accuracy analysis for their forecasts. The lack of records of forecasting accuracy suggests that business firms in Hong Kong are likely to continue to use a technique that fails to perform.