Twenty-three Centuries of Chinese Trade

One cover of the Economist magazine in November, 1999 proclaimed "China Opens Up". This paper argues that that assertion is most likely wrong, and not for the first time. In fact "China Closes Down" would be a more representative title for most of the last twenty-three centuries. For China, international commerce has always been less important than geopolitical influence; and self-sufficiency has meant avoiding reliance on outsiders to save face. These tendencies are as true today as they have been throughout history. Therefore, one should not overestimate the trade impacts of China's possible inclusion in the World Trade Organization. For China, entry into the WTO would be primarily a diplomatic victory in the "two-China" context with Taiwan, much along the lines of mainland China's membership in the United Nations. China will thus likely continue to strive for maximum self-sufficiency, particular in foodgrains