阿克苏试点区苹果保险费率合理性的实证分析

为探究阿克苏试点区苹果保险费率的合理性,本研究在剔除每年新增的未挂果果树种植面积的基础上,运用"单产去势——平稳性检验——非参数核密度估计模型"风险分析评估方法,对阿克苏苹果保险费率进行厘定,得出在90%保障水平下,纯费率为2.87%,代收毛费率为4.15%;在100%保障水平下,纯保险费率为4.57%,代收毛费率为6.62%,因此,"9%"的现行保险费率可能偏高。最后,本研究提出将林果业保险纳入中央财政支持的范畴、加强费率厘定研究的对策建议。

An Emprical Analysis of the Rationality of the Apple Premium Rate In Aksu Pilot Region

To study the rationality of the apple insurance premium rate in Aksu pilot region,this paper calculates the insurance rate by using the method-"elimination of trend of per unit area yield-stationary test-nonparametric kernel density estimation model"risk analysis assessment method,basing on the elimination of non-fruiting planting area added in each year.We conclude that in 90% guarantee level,the pure premium rate is 2.87%,the collection gross rate is 4.15%;in 100% guarantee level,the pure premium rate is 4.57%,the collection gross rate is 6.62%.Therefore,"9%",the current insurance rate,may be comparatively higher.Finally,this paper suggests that the forestry and fruit industry insurance should be financed by the central government and we also have to lay an emphasis on the research of the determination of the premium rate.