宁夏近18年来耕地面积动态变化及驱动力分析

目的]以宁夏耕地面积为研究对象,分析耕地总面积、人均耕地面积及耕地利用程度动态变化趋势,并从经济、社会、人口、技术等方面选取影响耕地面积变化的12个驱动因子进行研究,分析各驱动因子对宁夏耕地面积的影响。方法]选取1997~2014年宁夏耕地面积相关数据,首先运用数理统计法分析耕地面积变化趋势,然后采用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子进行分析和归纳。结果]近18年来宁夏总耕地面积波动较大,呈现出先缓慢增加,后急剧减少,再快速增加,最后保持平稳的变化态势;虽然宁夏人均耕地面积高于全国水平,但是仍逐年下降且下降速度较快;耕地复种指数呈上升趋势,表明宁夏耕地利用率在逐年提高,但总体利用水平依然较低;经济发展水平、人口压力、农业生产技术以及农业结构调整是影响宁夏耕地面积变化的主要驱动力。结论]宁夏耕地面积变化明显且受经济、人口、技术水平等因素影响较大。

ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC CHANG AND DRIVING FORCES OF CULTIVATED LAND IN NINGXIA DURING THE PAST 18 YEARS

Taking the cultivated land area of Ningxia as the object of study, this paper analyzed the dynamic change trend of the total area of arable land, the per capita arable land area and land use degree, selected 12 driving factors that affecting the cultivated land area from the economic, social, demographic, technical and other aspects. Based on the relevant data of cultivated land area in Ningxia in 1997-2014, it analyzed the change tendency of cultivated land area by mathematical statistics, and summarized the driving factors by the principal component analysis method. The results showed that the total cultivated area of Ningxia in the past 18 years changed from slowly increase, drastically decrease, rapid increase, and finally to be stable. Although the per capita arable land area in Ningxia was higher than the national per capita arable land area, but it still decreased year by year. Multiple cropping index showed an upward trend, indicating that the Ningxia land utilization rate increased year by year, but the overall level of utilization was still low. The principal component analysis showed that the level of economic development, population pressure, agricultural technical level and agricultural structure adjustment were the main driving forces for the change of cultivated land area in Ningxia. This study showed that the change of cultivated land area in Ningxia was obvious due to the economic, population and technical level.