循环经济认知误区的实证分析

随着传统经济增长模式危机的出现，世界各国纷纷提出并开始建立循环经济。循环经济作为一种崭新的社会经济发展模式，人们对其认识还存在种种误区，其中认为循环经济是一种最终实现“全新的封闭式的零排放的资源利用方式”、“可解决一切环境问题”的观点最为典型。那么，是否真的存在完美的全社会物质循环呢？实现这种循环的代价是什么？本文以物质循环为基本假设条件，应用扩张环境分析用投入产出模型对社会实现全循环的可能性进行了理论探讨．并以日本为例应用该模型对日本物质循环现状和在现有条件下实现全循环的可能性及其成本进行了实证分析，论证了在现有条件下实现全社会完美的物质循环的难点。

On the Misunderstanding of Circular Economy

With the appearance of the crisis of the traditional economy model,many counties in the world begin to pay more attention to circular economy.Circular economy is a kind of new development way for our society,but many people misunderstand its real meaning.Such as one of the typical idea,which considers the circular economy as one mode of less and close natural resources using economy and can solve all problems on environment.Then,is there perfect material circulation in whole society? How much is the cost for realizing this circulation? In this article,taking material circulation as basic assumption and using extended input-output model for analyzing the circulation,it discusses the possibility of realizing circulation in our whole society theoretically.It gives out the analysis on the present situation of material circulation in Japan,possibility of realizing whole circulation under existing condition and the cost with demonstration of Japan.We confirm that it is difficult to realize perfect material circulation in our whole society under exiting conditions.