经济长波:现象、理论与展望

综合已有文献,对经济长波现象、经济长波理论的相关研究进行了综述,在此基础上提出了经济长波理论的未来研究方向。总结如下:经济长波现象即经济发展过程中存在长度为40~60年、平均为50年的经济周期;从价格等观察变量开始的单一精确计量在经济长波现象发现过程中发挥了相当重要的作用,但并未为经济长波存在提供确凿证据,综合多种因素的多元推论历史模型可用来阐释经济长波的存在性;对经济长波的界定以周期性这一本质特性为前提,从狭义向广义发展,即从单纯经济变量发展到经济-社会-制度因素的组合;学者们对过去200多年已发生5次经济长波取得了基本一致的认识,但是在确切年份上因方法和数据的差异而略有不同;创新、战争、核心技术要素、多要素平衡与失衡是经济长波产生的主要因素,历次经济长波一般会伴随着技术或关键要素、产品或服务、基础设施、产业聚集和组织结构的变化。未来研究可从产业结构变化的角度研究经济长波的发生机理。

A Review and Outlook of Long Waves Research

This paper reviews the literatures on long wave,and then gives the outlook of future research in this field. Long wave is a recurrent phenome-non which lasts about 40~60 years and 50 years on average. Long waves are initially observed according to the fluctuation of price. And then it constructs deductive model which integrates multiple factors to explain the cyclical nature of long waves. And the definition is extended from economic field to consis-ting of social,economic and institutional factors. It is widely accepted that there are 5 long waves in the past 200 years,but the accurate timeline of each wave is controversial as a result of different method and data. Technological innovation,war,overarching technology,and the balance of multiple factors are regarded as the drivers of long waves. For each wave,the dominant technology,key factors,products and service,infrastructure and organizational structure differ. Furthermore,future research could focus on industrial structure and its effect on long waves.