国家级新区辐射带动力评价及其影响因素分解——以重庆两江新区为例

以重庆两江新区为例,结合绝对经济联系和引力模型等理念和方法,评价了重庆两江新区对重庆市内区县发展的辐射带动程度。通过设定和试算多元线性回归模型和3种空间计量模型,优选出空间误差模型用于评估重庆两江新区辐射带动力的主要影响因素及其力度。结果显示:重庆两江新区辐射带动重庆市内区县的拉力效应不太稳定、推力效应尚未形成,但综合推拉力效应呈上升趋势,表明重庆两江新区具有成为增长极的潜力;重庆两江新区对重庆市内区县的辐射带动力主要受到消费、投资、财政投入、城镇居民收入提升以及利用内资等因素的正向影响,受到金融机构人民币贷款余额、城镇化率等因素的负向影响。

Assessment on Development Impact of National New Area and Decomposition of Influencing Factors:Taking Chongqing Liangjiang National New Area as Example

Taking Chongqing Liangjiang National New Area as the example,this paper assesses the impacts of Chongqing Liangjiang National New Area on the development of 38 counties in Chongqing based on the concept and method of absolute economic relationship and a gravity model. Through compa-ring the estimated parameters in four econometric models,namely multivariable linear regression model,spatial autoregressive model,spatial Durbin model and spatial error model,it selects the the spatial error model to estimate the main influencing factors of development impacts of Chongqing Liangjiang Na-tional New Area. The result shows as follows:the attracting power of Chongqing Liangjiang National New Area to the counties in Chongqing is unstable,and the pushing power of Liangjiang National New Area has not formed in the past five years,but the comprehensive impact power is increasing,which indicates Liangjiang National New Area has the potential to be a regional growth pole in the long run;the development impact of Chongqing Liangjiang National New Area is influenced positively by domestic consumption,governmental investment,fiscal revenue,urban resident′s income and domestic capital,and influen-cing negatively loan balance of RMB and urbanization rate.