复杂技术产业追赶与国家经济发展:国际贸易视角

选取16个发达国家和12个发展中国家作为样本,利用其1992—2011年的数据,采取回归方法,分组检验了不同类别复杂技术产品出口额所占份额及其增长率对经济增长的影响。结果显示:无论是简单技术产品还是复杂技术产品,其出口增长都会促进经济增长,但是前者的促进作用存在拐点,且简单技术产品出口额增长与经济增长之间存在倒U型关系;各类产品的出口额对经济增长同样具有显著影响,且该影响不是线性的。提出中国在大力发展复杂技术产品的同时,应关注出口结构的调整,以保证出口持续促进经济增长。

Catching-up in Complex Technology Industry and National Economic Development:From Perspective of International Trade

This paper uses the data of 16 developed countries and 12 developing countries from 1992 to 2011 to make the grouping test for the impact of complex technology product expert on economic growth by the regression method.The results show as follows:the growth of export of simple technology product and complex technology products all promote economic grow,but there is an inflection point in the positive effect of the former;there exists an inverted-U shape relationship between the growth of simple technology product export and economic growth;the export of all types of products have significant impacts on economic growth as well,and such impacts are also not linear.Finally,it proposes that China should pay attention to the adjustment of export structure and develop complex technology products in order to ensure the sustained promotion role of product export.