基于三方演化博弈的中国乳制品集聚形成机制及对策研究

目的 随着国内乳制品产业的发展，乳业集聚格局特征日趋明显，不仅有助于提高产业内分工水平、产业竞争力，而且在培育本土品牌，解决市场失灵等方面发挥重要作用。方法 文章针对当前我国乳制品产业国际竞争力弱、市场信心疲软、质量安全余波未消、原料成本高—产品价格低的两难困境，通过构建演化博弈模型，分析奶农、奶站、乳制品企业选择集中规模化策略行为的演化博弈稳定策略，在此基础上，根据产业行为主体决策，分析乳制品产业集聚形成机制。结果 三方博弈主体的演化均衡策略的变化受各自支付矩阵影响，进而从微观个体的复制决策，在要素、资源禀赋等推动下，围绕利益相关主体，实现国内乳制品产业集聚的形成。结论 引导区域乳制品产业集聚、加强乳制品质量管控力度、提高行业管理与检测水平等有助于高效促进乳业集聚形成，培育国内乳业竞争力。

STUDY ON THE FORMATION MECHANISM OF DAIRY PRODUCTS AGGLOMERATION IN CHINA BASED ON THREE-DIMENSIONAL EVOLUTIONARY GAME THEORY

With the development of dairy industry in China, the pattern of dairy industrial cluster has been growing more significant characters. At the same time, dairy industrial cluster can not only make contribution to improve the level of intra-industry division of labor and industry competitiveness, but also cover a big weight at fostering domestic dairy brands and solving market failure, etc. Meanwhile, the international competitiveness of dairy industry was weak, the market confidence had been lost in ground for long time and the hot-debate quality and safety of dairy event had not been vanishing, the raw material of dairy cost still kept in high level with the trade-off price. Therefore, this study was composed through applying a framework of game theory to deal with the issues above. And it also built an evolutionary game model, which was focused on the analysis of the three market shareholders, such as dairy farmers and milk stations, large scale dairy enterprises, to prove the hypothesis involved, and help to select what kind of strategy behavior among the target objects of the dairy industry chain with stable strategy. On the basis of the setups mentioned above, it was obviously proved that the behavior of the main objects in the dairy industrial interest chain had a direct impact on all shareholders'' decisions. As to take all the decisions into the whole dairy industry chain and industry organization chain, this paper had proposed a systematic view on how to interpret the formation of industrial cluster through endogens cluster formation mechanism. To sum up the whole game model on the change of the evolution of the tripartite game, the equilibrium strategies of the three objects involving in dairy industry were influenced by each payoff matrix. And at the result of various of replication of individual decisions in micro view, with which the main stakeholders could transfer all that inputs to final products and services, such as dairy industry and market elements, resources endowment, the formation of the domestic dairy industry agglomeration could be generated into running under these inner pushing factors. In order to guide regional dairy industry agglomeration, strengthen the dairy products quality control, and improve the level of dairy industry management and testing, this study has contributed to improve dairy industry efficiency in the view of industry cluster formation, and countermeasures were promoted to cultivate the domestic dairy industry competitiveness.