印度甘尽苦来

如果外储不足以维持货币稳定,便只有提高利率,这又可能引起投资泡沫破灭。这一逻辑循环正是当下印度的写照。中国股市因摸着石头过河,缺乏顶层设计而十年涨幅归零。这方面印度堪称楷模,初期就注重制度建设。1990年代初,在资本市场改革之始,政府采取了一揽子举措,金融体系与西方的成熟市场全面接轨,成就了印度股市21世纪前十年的大牛市。

India:After The Sweet Comes The Bitter

China’s stock market has lost what it gained in the past decade for lack of a top level design.India,an emerging economy which is often compared with China,does not have to suffer from such a trouble,for the country opened its stock market completely to foreign investors in the 1990s.But a coin always has two sides:India’s stock market is facing troubles led by its openness.Paul Krugman,a Nobel laureate who precisely predicted the Southeast Asian financial crisis,explained the woes in such a simple way:the growth depends on large investments,and the enterprises run on heavy debts.This lures foreign capitals into the countries and thereby heightens their exchange rates.As the governments enlarge the currency supply to maintain the exchange rates,the credits are expanded.If the governments try to withdraw currencies,the domestic currency’s interest rates will rise,and more investments will rush in.Once the capitals stop pourring in,the domestic currency may depreciate.If the country cannot level off the currency,it may increase the interest rates.This will prick the investment bubble.Unfortunately,it’s the case in India.A rule to judge between good and bad growths is:whether the economic growth is pushed by money,or bred by market.According to Paul Krugman,if the growth goes high without a related productivity,at least two problems may emerge:the economy has some trouble,or it will have some trouble.