基于复杂网络的国民经济动员链风险传播研究

国民经济动员链的目标是在危态下保证应战应急资源的超常规供给,在其运行过程中的风险传播会降低动员链整体稳定性甚至破坏动员链的连通结构。以国民经济动员链为研究对象,依托复杂网络理论与方法系统地研究动员链风险传播问题。首先,构建国民经济动员链的复杂网络模型作为风险传播研究的载体。其次,改进SIRS疾病传播模型,建立具备动员特征的国民经济动员链风险传播模型。最后,以汶川特大地震医用物资动员任务为实际案例,模拟风险传播演化过程,探索相关变量对于动员链风险传播的影响。结果表明,不同的状态转换概率会对风险传播范围和风险传播时长造成影响。

Research on Risk Propagation of National Economy Mobilization Chain Based on Complex Network

The national economy mobilization chain aims to ensure the supernormal supply of various emergency resources in the dangerous state. However, the risk propagation on the chain will destruct the overall stability and even affect the normal operation. Taking the national economy mobilization chain as the research object, the risk propagation on the chain is studied systematically based on complex network theory and method. Firstly, a complex network model of the national economy mobilization chain is constructed as a carrier for risk propagation research. Secondly, a national economy mobilization chain risk propagation model with mobilization characteristics is established by improving the SIRS model. Finally, taking the mobilization task of the Wenchuan earthquake as a practical case, the risk propagation evolution simulation analysis is carried out, and the influence of relevant variables on the risk propagation is explored. The results show that the different state transition probability of the node will affect the risk spread range and risk propagation duration.